REGULARS
Investors ignore history lessons at their peril
Travelling around the UK for the past month it has given me a great insight into the restrictions on onshore investments (that horrible word tax springs to mind) to say nothing about the insight into cold and wet weather in June. While sunbathing was out of the question, I have had the opportunity to read many interesting articles on investment and Alan Steel in the Daily Telegraph appealed to me.
Five years ago, he says, those private investors still hanging on to their battered equity portfolios were finally succumbing under the weight of widespread pessimistic forecasts.
He says he was almost the only optimist in town. In June 2002 he suggested buying equities instead of selling them. Why was he so confident when surrounded by so much gloom? There were a number of factors being ignored especially by economists steeped in their morbid theories. Demographics is one.
For the first 20 odd years of your life you are a drain on the economy. After that you become economically productive; in retirement you become less so.
In the west the birth rate increased sharply after the Second World War. Roughly 35% of people in the west are aged between 43 and 60. The economist Harry Dent says we have maximum impact on economies around age 47. The number of 47 year olds has been growing dramatically during the last 20 years. But the birth rate has been falling since 1963. Demographics suggest rising stock markets at least until 2010.
History also tells us progress is cyclical, not linear 100 Pounds invested in 1900 but only held in equities for the last seven and a half years of each decade up until 2006 returned 44 times more to investors rather than staying invested in stock markets throughout.
That suggests it’s a good idea to avoid equities for the first two and a half years of the decade, to buy them when nobody wants them, and then to hold in for the remainder.
By far the most important factor to keep you on track and away from the clutches of pessimists is contrarian sentiment.
In the summer of 2002 as history predicted, private investor sentiment indices showed record levels of pessimism. By the laws of chance this was a clear buying opportunity.
Economists didn’t’ agree. In 2002 economists were pessimistic because of their wrong assumptions of low inflation and low interest rates. Without studying history for similar economic periods, they assumed wrongly that the best returns from equities over the next few years would be no higher than 6% per annum. However from the summer of 2002 the FTSE100 and the Dow Jones index were up more than 42%. The NASDAQ 69%, the DAX 81%. And the FT 250 index was up 122%. Some active managed funds had done even better.
These positive factors will continue. We are at the start of a major new phase in this bull market. Demographics are still positive and so is the decade cycle.
The world’s largest financial institutions are long right now in equities, investor sentiment is still too confused, inflation is still benign, and interest rates have probably peaked. Globalisation and technological advances are accelerating.
World-class companies are achieving record earnings growth; there are masses of cash around. That will take a long time to unravel. The early part of any new economic cycle sees small cap, mid cap and value funds outperform. The latter part sees growth and large caps catch up.
Contrarians should be dumping any remaining assets in investment property and heading for the equity sectors everybody hates. One hated sector to watch is technology, another is the US. The time to be cautious is when headlines tell us there’s nothing to worry about and when private investors are throwing caution to the wind.
It has certainly been my experience over the last twenty years that investors are afraid of the markets after a crash or a dip. Logic would tell us that this is the time to be piling the money in but logic in the individual is as rare a commodity as common sense.
Let me close by saying that in my opinion, even the most fearful of investors really should have at least 10% of their portfolios in equities; especially now
Think about it
Your comments appreciated to jerry@swissinvestcenter.net
Arts & Culture – Architect: Santiago Calatrava
Following up on our wander through the modern art world we now delve into the world of architecture.
We start with an architect that you may have heard of, or you will have at least seen some of his work in magazines. So far Thailand has not been the recipient of one of his stunning structures.
Santiago Calatrava Valls was born on July 28, 1951 in Valencia, Spain. He is currently classed among the elite designers of the world, he has offices in Zurich, Paris and New York.
Calatrava’s style has been heralded as bridging the division between structural engineering and architecture. He continues a tradition of Spanish modernist engineering that includes Félix Candela and Antonio Gaudí. His style is very personal and derives from numerous studies he makes of the human body and the natural world.
Calatrava is also a prolific sculptor and painter, claiming that the practice of architecture combines all the arts into one. In 2005, the Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York City, held an exhibition of his artistic work, entitled “Santiago Calatrava: Sculpture Into Architecture.” Exhibitions of his work have also taken place in Germany, England, Spain and Italy.
Calatrava pursued undergraduate studies at the Architecture School and Arts and Crafts School in Valencia Spain. Following graduation in 1975, he enrolled in the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) in Zürich, Switzerland for graduate work in civil engineering. After completing his doctoral thesis in 1981, “On the Foldability of Space Frames”, he started his architecture and engineering practice.
Calatrava’s early career was dedicated largely to bridges and train stations, the designs for which elevated the status of civil engineering projects to new heights. His elegant and daring Montjuic Communications Tower in Barcelona, Spain (1991) in the heart of the 1992 Olympic site was a turning point in his career, leading to a wide range of commissions. The Quadracci Pavilion (2001) of the Milwaukee Art Museum was his first major US building. Calatrava’s entry into high-rise design began with an innovative 54 storey high twisting tower, called Turning Torso (2005), located in Malmö, Sweden. Calatrava is currently designing the future train station - World Trade Center Transportation Hub - at Ground Zero in New York City.
If you have not heard Calatrava’s name before then you should take note as he is both prolific and highly creative and has received recognition throughout the world. In 1990 he received the “Médaille d Argent de la Recherche et de la Technique”, Paris. In 1993, the Museum of Modern Art in New York held a major exhibition of his work called “Structure and Expression.” In 1998 he was elected to become a member of “Les Arts et Lettres,” in Paris. In 2004, he received the Gold Medal from the American Institute of Architects (AIA), and in 2005, Calatrava was awarded the Eugene McDermott Award by the Council for the Arts of MIT, this award being among the most esteemed in the US.
One of his newest projects is a residential skyscraper named “80 South Street” after its own address, composed of 10 townhouses in the shape of cubes stacked on top of one another. The townhouses move up a main beam and follow a ladder-like pattern, providing each townhouse with its own roof. The “townhouse in the sky” design has attracted a high profile clientele, willing to pay the hefty US$30 million for each cube. It is planned to be built in New York City’s financial district facing the East River.
He has also designed the approved skyscraper, the Chicago Spire, in Chicago. Originally commissioned by Chicagoan Christopher Carley, Irish developer Garrett Kelleher purchased the building site for the project in July of 2006 when Carley’s financing plans fell through. When completed, the Chicago Spire, at 2,000 feet tall.
Calatrava has also designed three bridges that will eventually span the Trinity River in Dallas. Construction of the first bridge, named after donor Margaret Hunt Hill, has been repeatedly delayed due to high costs, a fact that has sparked much controversy and criticism. If and when completed, Dallas will join the Dutch county of Haarlemmermeer in having three Calatrava bridges.
As with all innovators Calatrava has recieved some criticism, his work in Bilbao has been criticized for impracticality. The airport lacks facilities and the bridge’s glass tiles are prone to break and get slippery under the local weather.
Calatrava in 1996 gifted the Municipality of Venice with the project of a new bridge on the “Canal Grande”. From that time the project underwent numerous structural changes, due to the mechanical instability of the structure and the excessive weight of the bridge, which would cause the bank of the canal to fail. The construction site was interrupted, briefly after the opening of the site. In 10 years the project has been inspected by more than 8 different consultants and the cost of the project has raised up to three time the original expectations; however the work has not been finished yet.
Calatrava has revolutionized the design of the places we move through, in the scores of bridges, airports and train stations he has designed throughout the world. His structures suggest the pliant forms of nature that inspire him.
As a boy Calatrava wanted to be a sculptor, but an early encounter with the work of Ludwig Mies van der Rohe sent him down the path of architecture
Shortly after finishing his architecture studies he won a design competition for a train station in Zurich, and because he had taken the unusual step of getting a second degree in engineering, he soon found himself being sought out to design bridges throughout Europe, a job that ordinarily falls to engineers and rarely to architects. His bridges are unusual for having asymmetrical flourishes, canted curves that slant against the water. “Asymmetry allows you to explore,” he says. “You can emphasize things having to do with the position of the city against the water or the curvature of the stream.”
Calatrava has brought a vocabulary, both rational and anatomical, to many structures including the tidal wave of his new opera house in Tenerife, Spain, and his addition to Wisconsin’s Milwaukee Museum of Art, a structure that culminates in the rising arc of a sunscreen that opens and closes like the wings of a bird.
Time’s Richard Lacayo wrote “Calatrava has brought to the world of travel an incomparable high-tech lyricism. His structures speak plainly of engineering, of struts and cables, white concrete pylons and keen-edged glass louvers. But at the same time they suggest unmistakably the pliant forms of nature - an eye, a torso, a bird in flight, that inspire him”.
Millions enjoyed the harmony created at the 2004 Summer Olympic Games in Athens thanks to Calatrava’s master plan for the Athens Olympic Sports Complex, which included his soaringly spectacular designs for the Olympic Stadium and Velodrome, the Agora and the Nations Wall.
“Close-Disclose” An exhibition by Juliette de Salle
1-30 August 2007
“Close-Disclose” is the title of Belgian photographer Juliette de Salle’s second exhibition in Thailand and her first solo exhibition in Bangkok. The work displayed in this show is inspired by a quote from the French novelist Guy de Maupassant: “...In everything, there is some unexplored because we are used to look with our eyes only with the memory of what somebody else thought before us...”
Juliette de Salle looks for the unexplored all around her, often no further than her home or a few meters away: a plastic bag, a feather or a cigarette butt. Her pictures manage to capture the unrevealed, the detail and fragility of what we have under our eyes for an instant but often fail to see. Taken very close to the subjects, her photos have a semi-abstract feel by capturing the unusual lines, light and surfaces. They disclose a space to explore and a unique atmosphere to feel.
Juliette says: “...The light of Thailand is very significant for me. Especially the evening light, which gives wonderful colours to the subjects. Even if the subjects are very common and not always recognizable, it’s important for me that they are ‘products from Thailand’ (e.g. flowers, fruits, and insects). I don’t pretend to show Thailand but I hope you can feel its influence in my photographs...”
Born in 1973 in Brussels, Belgium, Juliette de Salle graduated in Architecture and attended for 8 years courses in painting, drawing and interior’s design at the Visual Arts Academies of St Gilles and Ixelles, as well as at the International Summer Academy of Libramont in Belgium. While working as a Urban Lighting Designer, Juliette developed and exhibited her creative works such as lamps and photographs in Brussels (“Parcours d’Artistes in 2002 and 2004, “Nature” in 2005). Her photographs were nominated for the Hamesse Prize in 2004 and 2005. Juliette moved to Thailand in 2006 and is now working full-time on several photographic and painting projects.
The Rotunda Gallery is at the Neilson Hays Library, 195 Surawong Road, Bangkok (Tel. 02-233-1731) and it’s opening hours are: Tuesday – Sunday 9:30 - 17:00.
Memory Of Hua Hin
An art exhibition is being held at Baan Sillapin (on the road to Pala U) called “the memory of Hua Hin“ by the Jamjuree group (all graduates from the Faculty of Fine and Applied Arts, Chulalongkorn University). The art is of the beautiful views and scenery around Hua Hin and on display will be 70 works altogether, with watercolour and oil paintings along with many other art forms.
Mr. Prasit Boonlikit is honouring the exhibition by opening it on Saturday 4th August 2007 at 2pm in front of the galleries at Baan Sillapin
All guess are invited to have a cup of afternoon tea or coffee while they are at the exhibition. Hua Hin has become a leading centre for arts and culture in Thailand, and this exhibition is to promote this to both tourists and locals alike.
The exhibition is free and runs from 4th August to 3rd September 2007, and is open everyday from 10.00-17.00 except Mondays.
Useful Telephone Numbers for Hua Hin
Railway station
032-512 770, 032-511 073
Bus station of Hua Hin
032-511 654, 032-512 543
Bus station of Prachuabkirikhan
032-601 901
Bus station of Pranburi
032-621 443
Hua Hin Hospital
032-520 401
Dog Rescue Center
0-1981 4406
Wild life Rescue Center (Tayang)
032-458 135
Department of Land Cha-am office:
032- 430 846-7
Department of Land Hua Hin office:
032-536 164, 032-512 407
Department of Land Prachuabkirikhan:
032-611 211
Department of Land Pranburi
032-622 199
Local Government (Hua Hin)
032-521 340, 532 471
Local water supply
032-511 677
The Power Board of Hua Hin
032-512 215, 032 513 165
Observer office:
032-531 078
Red Cross.
032-512 567
San Paolo Hospital
032-532 576-85
Polyclinic International
032-516 424, 032-516 425
Shell Cooking Gas
032-511 144, 032- 515 620
The Communication Authority of Thailand
(Hua Hin)
032-511 351
Rotary Club of Hua Hin
0-1916 6637
Meeting every Thursday 8.pm
at Hua Hin Grand Hotel & Plaza
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