Regular features from May 2003 89th Issue

Dear Observer,
The theft of donations to Hua Hin Dog Rescue (April Observer) is very sad, but also sad because it is not a shock. This can happen anywhere in the world. Hopefully better collection boxes and siting will solve the problem.
What concerns me more is the plight of Elisa, whose photo also appeared with the 'theft' article.
Dogs are pack animals. Their natural instinct is to run with the pack, hunt, play and defend themselves. Clearly Elisa can do none of these things.
If, as stated, her case is hopeless why is she being allowed to continue in this sorry state?
Mags, Doglover
ED: Thailand is a Buddhist country, and the taking of life is forbidden.

The Digital Doctor - Hardware Headaches

So you've finally decided to take the plunge and move on from the antiquated box you've been calling a computer for the past few years. However in this new hi-tech world full of choices you've found yourself in a labyrinth of decisions regarding the hardware available to you. Should you go for an Intel or AMD? SDRAM or DDR? DVD player or CD Writer? So many questions but no so many answers.
It all comes down to your basic needs, what do you really want the computer to do? Hardware now has progressed far further than software, therefore you can have a machine that is far more powerful than you actually need and you'll only be using a fraction of its potential. A bit like owning a Porsche when you never drive faster than 50. A new computer of reasonable specification would cost you somewhere in the region of 20,000 Baht today, you could get one cheaper but then you could also spend twice as much.
For basic office use, internet, and multimedia (music and video) a 3GHz Pentium IV would be overkill. Something like about half the speed with a high quality mainboard and 256MB memory would be more than adequate for most peoples computing needs. Maybe throw in a CD burner and DVD player and you've got yourself a nice piece of kit. However if you're of the ilk that will be working with serious graphics, video capture, or heavy gaming then maybe the Porsche would be a better option.
Be very wary of those 'all in one' Panthip Plaza packages, cheap, yes, but you must question the quality. All is not always as it seems inside the box and I'll get on to specific components in a moment. Make sure it has at least a year's warranty and some after sales support would be good also. Why not build your own? This way you have the flexibility of choice of components instead of letting the shop decide for you (you don't actually have to physically build it unless you want to). If you're a brand freak then go ahead and spend twice as much on a computer of the same or lower specification but in a pretty box with a name on the front.
Avoid mainboards with everything onboard; graphics, sound, LAN, even modems sometimes. They tend to be of a lot lower quality and don't give you a lot of room for upgrades. Most computer buyers overlook the mainboard, which, in my opinion is the most important component of the computer. Everything runs off the mainboard, it's the central hub of the machine so must be of the highest quality. As for brand names I would recommend ASUS or Intel boards for their quality and reliability, Gigabyte are not bad either.
Your CPU is probably the first thing you'll look for, 'how fast is it then?' I hear you cry. The industry standard at the time of writing is a 2.4GHz Pentium IV processor, but that doesn't mean you need one of these. AMD have been giving Intel a run for their money in the processor wars for sometime now and have some serious competitors. The Athlon XP chip is a sturdy rival to the Pentium and at a considerably lower price, benchmark tests have also proved the AMD of equivalent speed to be quicker than the Intel for certain applications (more info on www.tomshardware.com ). One thing to note with the AMD's is that they get hot so you'll need a well cooled case and a quality CPU fan. An XP 1800+ or a Pentium IV 1.8GHz would be a respectable CPU to aim for. If you're on a budget you could opt for a slightly lower spec Duron or Celeron processor (both of which still pack a punch).
Next comes a question of memory, by this I mean RAM. There are currently two mainstream types of memory you can use in your computer; SD and DDR (I won't bore you with the technical details). The DDR is the newer type and should really be considered as SD is gradually being phased out as EDO was a few years back. I would recommend 256MB as a minimum for today's applications and 512MB if you're into your graphics and video editing. Most mainboards available today should support DDR or have the option for either.
Hard disk size is another consideration, but unless you have a 5,000 MP3 music collection then a 40GB drive should be more than enough for you. Make sure it's a higher speed disk (7,200rpm) and ATA 100 (as most now days are). It is also a good idea to have a partitioned or split drive so you can store your data separate from your operating system and programs.
Graphics cards are again usually overlooked when purchasing a new machine and with the prices falling make sure you don't miss out. A good card (e.g. Geforce 2 or 4) can be picked up now for around 2,500 Baht, giving you all the flexibility and power you need. Monitor prices are also tumbling so I wouldn't go for less than a 17", if desk space is like Hua Hin beachfront real estate you can go for a Flatscreen one, but they're still quite pricey.
You may also be considering a DVD player or CD burner, you can now buy a combo drive (which does both) for around 3,500 Baht, an additional standard CD ROM is probably unnecessary unless you want to do a lot of CD to CD copying. A burner is also handy for backing up your data for safe storage.
Naturally make sure you have a soundcard and modem also. Avoid modem risers (ones built into the mainboard) as they often share CPU power thus slowing your connection and operation. A good soundcard (e.g. Creative SB Live) can be had for around 1,400 Baht. Speakers are entirely up to you, how loud and offensive do you want to be?
Armed with this new knowledge you can now comfortably venture into the unknown and throw a few questions back at the smartarse salesman in your local computer store. If you have any hardware issues still unclear or you're thinking of buying a new machine you can always contact the Doc on 01-1911742 or at webmaster@observergroup.net for assistance.

Forwards Swaps and Futures

Most investors have an understanding on how traditional markets work. Most known the difference between equities, bonds, property,
and money market funds. For instance if you have equity in a company like Microsoft and that companies share price falls, so does the value of your holding. Conversely if the share price rises you're a winner. Increasing awareness of uncertainty in the economic environment has changed the way financial markets operate.
Successful strategies require that the risks inherent in changes in interest rates, currencies and commodities be successfully managed
Firms have turned to a number of different instruments to manage these risks. The most common approach is for firms to hedge.
Back in 1949 Alfred W.Jones started an investment company which he called a hedge fund because it would not just buy the stocks it liked,
it would also sell stocks short that it felt were overvalued. Since it was hedged this way the fund was less susceptible to big market moves than traditional funds.
But it was not until 1992 that these funds captured the imagination of large institutional investors, with George Soros's Quantum fund, founded in the 60's now worth billions of dollars. Since the early 90's some firms have been targeting retail investors and undoubtedly these alternative investment funds will become an increasing part of most people's portfolios.
So I will attempt to give investors a simple guide to a complicated area and try to explain the terminology used by brokers, hopefully working on your behalf..
There are two principal kinds of products used to manage financial risk: terminal instruments and options. The terminal products are Forwards, Swaps and Futures All of these, together with options, make up the derivative product set.
Forward Contracts are the simplest to understand. They bind the buyer, or long position holder, to buy a given asset on a set date in the future at a price agreed at the time the contract is entered into. If at the time the contract matures the market price is above the contracted price, the buyer gains. If however the market price is below the contracted price the buyer loses. The opposite applies to the seller or short position holder. A major problem with forward contracts is the default or credit risk. Will both parties honour their obligation?
Futures contracts whether on commodities or exchange rates have the same characteristics as a forward . They were originally conceived as a means of eliminating credit risk from a forward contract.(Achieved by utiliising a clearing house and margin calls).
Suppose the one year interest rate in the US was 10% and 5% in Switzerland. and the exchange rate is 2 SFR to the dollar. I borrow 2 million Swiss Francs at 5% and immediately convert them into US$1 million. I wire the funds to Wall St. and lend at 10% I enter a futures contract to convert back to Swiss Francs in a years time at 10%
After one year I have 1.1 million dollars which equals 2.2 million SFR I repay the 2 million SFR + interest @5% of 100,000 sfr leaving me with a risk free profit (Arbitrage) of SFR 100,000 less trading commissions..
Swaps. The newest of the terminal contracts, sometimes called an exchange contract, obliges the two parties to exchange or swap a series of cash flows at specified intervals over a particular time period.
An extreme example to illustrate the use of an intrest rate swap.
Lets say BMW can borrow I billion Euro in Frankfurt at 5% but in New York has to pay 10% for US$ 1 billion
IBM can borrow US$ 1 billion at 5% in New York but 1 billion Euro in Frankfurt would cost them 10%. Let's say 1 dollar = 1 euro
A merchant bank would bring both parties together and arrange a swap contract. The effect would be to transform a euro loan into a dollar one and vice versa
Both companies have avoided a penal 10% interest rate which they would have to pay on the market if they wished to borrow and expand abroad.
We'll look at options in a future article.

For further information on any area of personal finance contact JerryMcMenamin at info@swissinvestcenter.com

Flight News

Compiled by Alain De Rocker
O.M.P.P. & A.J.P.B.E.

SARS Man Made Seven Lufthansa Flights
A 48-year-old Chinese man made seven international flights before he was admitted to hospital suffering from the mystery SARS virus which has killed over 100 people worldwide. Health authorities in Hong Kong are now appealing for passengers and crews on board all the flights, made with German carrier Lufthansa, to seek medical advice.
The man flew from Hong Kong to Munich, made two visits to Frankfurt then a second to Munich. He also flew to Barcelona and London before returning to Hong Kong.
An itinerary released by the Hong Kong health department showed that the SARS sufferer started his international journey on March 31 when he flew from Hong Kong to Munich on board Lufthansa Flight 731. The following day he traveled on Flight 4316 to Barcelona, in Spain, where he first developed the symptoms of the illness. His next trips were on Flight 4303 to Frankfurt on April 2 and then to London on Flight 4520. He went to Munich the next day on Flight 4671, then headed for Frankfurt on April 4 on Flight 265. The man connected with Flight 738 the same day back to Hong Kong, arriving on April 5. He was admitted to hospital in Hong Kong. Lufthansa said it had disinfected its planes and claimed that the chances of anyone contracting the disease were "very remote." It was alerting passengers and crews who were on the suspect flights.
Ryanair Completes Low Cost Buzz Deal
European budget carrier Ryanair has completed its take-over of former KLM low cost airline Buzz and confirmed it won the deal at a bargain price.
The Irish carrier paid EUR20.1 million (USD$21.5 million) for its smaller rival, EUR2.8 million lower than the original purchase price. Ryanair has formed a new subsidiary - Buzz Stansted - and the company will operate a fleet of 10 aircraft, employ up to 130 people and start flying on May 1. It will primarily serve a network of 12 routes, formerly operated by KLM UK/Buzz. The new Chief Executive of Buzz will be John Osborne, a former Director of Operations for Ryanair and former Chief Executive of GB Airways and Virgin Express.
Welcoming the completion of the transaction today, Ryanair's Chief Executive, Michael O'Leary said: "We have been delighted with the speed and success of the turnaround and relaunch of the core Buzz operation.
Thanks to the Herculean efforts of our friends in KLM, the outstanding team of people in Buzz and Ryanair, we have restructured and relaunched the core Buzz operation within a period of two months.
"This turnaround will transform a company that was losing over EUR1 million a week, to one that will be profitable when it relaunches."
Singapore Airlines Triumphs At OAG Awards
Singapore Airlines has been named Airline of the Year at the OAG Awards, which is celebrating its 21st birthday.
At a ceremony in London on Thursday, attended by leading figures in the aviation industry, SIA also carried off a further five trophies. The awards were a triumph for the Asia Pacific region, with Singapore's Changi winning best airport title for the eighth consecutive year. US budget carrier Southwest Airlines topped the Best Low Cost Airline category, a title it has held for three years. Midwest Airlines was named Best Airline based in North America and Canada.
In his keynote speech, Eddie Bell, Chairman of OAG, praised the resilience of the industry in the face of the current conflict in Iraq. He stressed the importance of the aviation industry for international trade.
The Outstanding Service Award, presented to airline or airport staff who
have acted above and beyond the call of duty, was awarded to Hana Peskova of CSA Czech Airlines. She was nominated for her efforts to help the people of Prague during the massive floods of last August.

London Airports Suffer March Traffic Dip
Leading UK airports felt the combined effects of war in Iraq and a later Easter holiday period as traffic dipped in March.
The country's busiest international hub, London Heathrow, suffered most as traffic fell by over 8 percent. The capital's second largest airport, at Gatwick, dropped by 6.2 percent. A steep fall in North Atlantic flights (down by 8.9 percent) and other long haul services (a drop of 12.4 percent) contributed to the downturn last month.
Airports operator BAA unveiled better news over its full year to March 31. Traffic at its seven airports was up by an overall 4.7 percent.
London Stansted, home to expanding budget airlines, showed the most dramatic year-on-year advance with traffic up by 18.9 percent.

Birds Strike At UK Airport Plan
Plans for a major new international airport to serve London have been thrown into doubt by a flock of birds.
A new study, commissioned by the UK's Transport Ministry, warns that the huge number of migratory birds which congregate on the proposed airport site, located south-east of the capital, present unacceptable risks to
aircraft. The GBP£11.5 billion (USD$18 billion) project, at Cliffe, in Kent would, says the report, be at greater risk from birds being sucked into aircraft engines than any existing airport in the UK. The site, situated on remote wetlands on the estuary of the River Thames, attracts up to 200,000 birds of widely varying species. It would need "a comprehensive and aggressive bird management program" to combat the threat to planes but even that measure would not entirely rule out the dangers, the report says.
The proposal for a four-runway facility at Cliffe is one of four options put forward by the UK government to meet a growing need for more airport
capacity. Although it has been opposed by environmentalists, support has come from several local authorities because of Cliffe's minimum impact on noise and pollution levels. Other options involve constructing a third runway at London's busiest hub, Heathrow and expanding the capital's two other major airports at Gatwick and Stansted. All have run into fierce local resistance.
A consultation process on the proposals continues until June and a government decision is expected before the end of this year.
British Airways (BA) is to re-launch its Frequent Flyer Executive Club
scheme in an enhanced form from July 1. BA says it is the only major airline improving its system rather than downgrading. By developing the program the former different regional versions will be replaced by one global program. Its primary target is the business traveler. The Gold, Silver and Blue membership levels stay but at the bottom level only one flight is required. Additionally the possibility to pool miles for up to seven persons under a household account is now available to all members.
Moreover, upgrade awards can now be redeemed under the program, although in a restricted manner. (source I.A.P.A)

Part Five:
What Side Are You On?
A look at current events through the eyes of Transformational Thinking.
By Bill Gould

First of all, thank you to all who have provided feedback and sent e-mails regarding this series. It appears as though Transformational Thinking is working for people who are applying it. This is just the tip of the iceberg, I assure you.

If you have been following this series, you should have noticed a few patterns taking place. You should also have noticed a change in your perception if you have been applying the skills in the last article. This is, as they say back in my part of the world, "Where the rubber meets the road." Or, another way of expressing it in my neck of the woods is, "It ain't what you know . . . It's what you can do with it." As previously mentioned, knowledge is not really power; applying it is power, for that is where concept becomes reality, for example, the making of a table or the world situation. The world, our reality, is exactly what we have made it. The narrower one's perception, the narrower one's world. We have established that a key factor in becoming a more effective thinker is to broaden one's parameters of perception. We are now going to apply it here. Transformational Thinking is all about broadening one's parameters of perception to increase the number of options available to us. The more options, the more likelihood of making the best choice.

These days, everyone is once again being drawn by the power of polarization as world events escalate across the room towards crisis crouching on the sofa in the corner. We are on the verge of a possible war that will send ripples throughout our reality for a long time to come . . . or not. Perhaps, by the time this article is published, a peaceful resolution will have been accomplished and we can focus our attention of other matters. Perhaps the world is already embroiled and aflame and we must focus our skills on survival and security matters. Regardless, look around you. What do you see in our commonly shared reality? How did we get here? How do we stop the madness?

What if the world's greatest minds, the one's who got us here in the first place, applied some of thee thinking skills and concepts we have presented thus far? If we do an OPV on some of these leaders, we would better understand where they are coming from. We know that. What if they were applying the same skill before making some of the decisions they do? What if they were considering all the factors (CAF) beforehand? What if they were considering all options, including ones that are innovative and creative (PMI)? What impact would that have on the world?

Forming an opinion is making a decision as to what side of an issue you are going to stand. That is very linear thinking. Whose side are you on? Ours or theirs? Linear logic is prone to creating conflict. Linear thinking is polarizing by its very nature and that is precisely the dominant thinking system these world leaders are applying because that is what they have inherited. Many of these decisions are based upon emotion. Others are based upon whatever information we have ingested. Judgment. We have already demonstrated how much better our decisions become once we have learned to temporarily suspend judgment and emotion. What if our world leaders opened their minds and hearts to all the other information out there? The other points of view? What if decisions that plunge entire nations into war and devastation could be a little more carefully considered without the heat of anger and resentment and prejudice?

Linear thinking is divisive, always seeking to create extremes through the process of elimination, one of the few natural laws it does follow. The process of definition is such a linear process. Until you define what something is not as well as what it is, you leave too much room for interpretation, something linear logic is designed to dispel, accounting for its penchant for precision. Splitting the atom into smaller and smaller components, as related to our exploration of the universe of outer space is another example of the polarizing nature of linear thinking, yet our leader's best thinking is what has gotten us into the state the world is in today, hasn't it? Linear thinking at it's finest? I would hate to think that any world leader would make a decision with the deliberate purpose of appearing like a fool or a demon. Surely, our world leaders are giving us their best thinking? Well, it ain't cutting the mustard, as the folks back home would say. Not by a long shot.

It would seem as though extremes of thinking are making the decisions having the greatest impact on our world. It is certain that the extremes is what the media focus upon. That is the source of much of our information and that is filtered through so many systems before it gets to us. What is the reality? We know it when it happens to us. When it rolls over us like tidal waves of decision ripples from powerful places have a tendency to do to common folk. Victims of circumstance? You don't have to be. You already know enough to become a champion of change. If you apply just what we have presented thus far. What if our world leaders did the same?

What is right or wrong but linear thinking? What about acceptable and unacceptable? How can one completely select a "side" when issues are multi-dimensional rather than confrontational? What is linear logic but rock logic, another of de Bono's concepts. Rock logic is hard, unyielding, firm, heavy. Transformational Thinking, on the other hand, is based upon water logic. It is pliable, flowing, yet can be just as powerful as those tidal waves, maybe more so. Take a look at the Grand Canyon to get an idea of which wins in the long term, water logic or rock logic. Win? Lose? That is also a bastard child of linear thinking. It has given us many others.

So, without right and wrong, win or lose, what kind of a world would we have? Hmm. Isn't that what we elect leaders for? Isn't that where they are supposed to be taking us? To a better reality? Why else would we vote for them? Certainly no sane person votes for someone they think is going to make the world a worse place, at least for themselves. So we have to bear some of the responsibility here, too. Hmmm. Shared responsibility? What if our world leaders applied that concept? Now, I may be missing something here, folks, but I don't think so. I mean, look around you. Is this the reality we want to bequeath to our children's children? Time to get off our collective asses and do something about it. We can spend the rest of our children's lives pointing fingers of shame and blame but that moves us no closer to a better reality for them, does it?

Maybe if our world leaders checked their egos at the door at some of these conferences where most of the time, if you will notice, nothing of any import is ever produced precisely because linear logic demands they choose one side or the other and it is a case of the lowest common denominator which ends up being so pale and weak, resuscitation is considered a cruelty. Or they allow themselves, more often, yet to be bullied by the more powerful and then put the best possible spin on it for the consumption of the folks back home. Or go with the majority, another favorite linear logic tactic.

Continued next Month

Keep thinking clearly. By the way, our web site is now up and running.
Visit us at transformationalthinking.com.

Special customer at Friend Silver shop was Mr Friday - a German politician's bodyguard

Ballons and beer at Jungle Juice for Paul's birthday

All the D's with daughter Demi, celebrating Dad Danny's birthday

Kieron celebrating Shane and Martin's birthday, as only he can!

It gets hot with all those candles, another one for Anthony

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