Regular features from August 2003 92nd Issue

The Digital Doctor - Connection Woes

The majority of computer problems I'm called out to deal with involve modems and connecting. A simple task such as getting on the internet is made a nightmare by the myriad problems that we face in Thailand; bad phone lines, unreliable ISP's, infrastructure limitations and then general computer problems. There are a few simple guidelines you can follow to help you source the problem that keeps popping up that infuriating Microsoft error window when you try to connect.
Firstly make sure your hardware is fine. All too frequent a problem is blown modem chips, this usually happens after a thunderstorm when the phone line has been left plugged into the modem. A lightening strike on the line can fry a modem instantaneously, leaving you with a trip to the shop for another one. You usually get the message "no dial tone" after this has happened, check the line with your telephone first. Always disconnect your phone line from the computer during thunderstorms.
Assuming your hardware (the actual modem) is fine you may have problems with the drivers. A driver, apart from Somchai and his motorcycle taxi, is a piece of software that controls the hardware and makes it compatible with your operating system. Windows sometimes has this annoying habit of corrupting driver files and rendering your hardware about as useful as central heating in Hua Hin. To check it right click My Computer > properties > device manager > (properties > hardware > device manager on 2000 and XP) about halfway down the list you should see your modem, if there is an exclamation mark, question mark or no modem there its highly likely your driver files are corrupt or missing. Easily solved providing you have the original driver CD that came with your modem. Right click the modem and remove it, upon restart Windows should find it again and prompt you for the driver files which are on the CD. If its not there at all you could try "detect new hardware" in control panel. If you don't have any of the CDs because you bought the machine from uncle Bob or the technicians in the shop were too incompetent to give them to you most drivers can be downloaded from www.driverguide.com (I know not much use if your modem doesn't work!).
Okay, your modem works, it dials, you can hear it buzzing away and negotiating the 'handshake', all is well. However as you and I both know things don't always go that smoothly! You may get one of the following messages:
' the computer you dialed is not answering, try again later' 'you have been disconnected from the computer you are dialing' 'the computer you are dialing in to cannot establish a dial-up network connection. Check your password and try again' 'the line is busy, try again later' 'dial-up networking could not negotiate a compatible set of network protocols …' 'invalid login or password. Please check your password and try again'.
If you hear the modem dialing and then you get one of these messages don't panic, its unlikely to be your computer at fault. More than likely a problem on the remote computer or phone line due to the reasons I mentioned above. If it doesn't get to the 'verifying user name and password' stage then there could be a problem with the modem or software and its time to take action or call in the reinforcements. The last message regarding invalid password can only mean one of two things: someone has changed your password or your usage time has run out.
Generally dial-up connection in Hua Hin is about as good as a leaky boat, it works but its not going to get you very far. This is largely due to poor infrastructure and lack of maintenance or improvement to the telephone lines and systems. Connection speeds are generally better the closer you are to the center of town, but don't be fooled by what your little dial-up screen in the corner of your monitor reports your speed as being, its usually a lot less.
From my experience I have found CS and Loxinfo (now the same company owned by the PM) to be the most reliable although by no means good. Their connection varies with time of day, usually faster in the evening, I-net are not bad either. Avoid anything that uses the 1222 number to connect, as you'll be sharing with half the country and finding yourself constantly re-dialing or dropping off traffic. Also make sure you use the local number (Prachuab for Hua Hin, Petchburi for Cha-am) or you'll get a scary phone bill. You can pick these packages up in most internet cafes around town. For those of you with more money to spare there is a satellite connection which offers up to 256Kbps but at a cost of 6-7000 baht per month plus hardware and installation fees. We are still waiting for Hua Hin to join the rest of the world and offer ADSL and Wireless 'hotspots' but don't hold your breath. On a brighter note I read recently that there is a wireless hotspot at Springfield and TT&T have just started installing leased lines with 128k connections.
Setting it up is also easy, first go into Dial-up Networking (Start > settings > Network and Dial-up connections (Win 2000/XP) or My Computer > Dial-up Networking (Windows 98)). Then 'make new connection' and give it a name, put in the phone number (include the area code), and then put in your user name and password as shown on the card you got with the package. Windows 98 users will have to make a few minor adjustments once you've created the account; right click the new connection you've just made > Properties > then remove the 'use area code' as its already included with the number, then go to Server Types > and de-select all check boxes except TCP/IP. Modems are the most common cause of computer problems nowadays, they're also one of the cheapest components.
If you're having connection or modem troubles you can always call the Doc on 01-1911742. mjy@digitalmetrix.net www.digitalmetrix.net

Financial Press

For me it's always interesting to follow the financial press. You can learn a lot about different investment products and more importantly financial journalists perform a great public service in helping protect consumers from financial predators. There are plenty of those in the financial field.
However stories that are positive and reflect well on a financial product or a company appear to me to be seldom reported. Maybe there are no stories like that around but I don't think so. After all it does make a much better story if Tom LaHein's investment is stolen by some shady broker than if Tom made 20% every year for ten years.
Remember the technology boom. Millions were made on the way up and millions were lost on the way down. Somehow the headlines in the financial press were bigger on the negative stories.
I too sometimes find it easier to be critical than constructive. In Thailand for instance it's much easier to criticise a crooked cop who wants 200 baht from a motorist than praise an honest cop on a small salary, who rears a family of two or three children that anyone in this world would be proud of.
One reason financial journalists can be so critical is that they never have to recommend any fund or broker. They would have to be accountable if they did. A broker like me has to recommend and stand accountable for that recommendation.
Because of this most honest financial professionals will never recommend anything fishy.
Currently going the rounds is a company offering 9% guaranteed per annum. In to day's low interest environment, I wouldn't touch this with a barge poll.
Currently financial journalists are having a field day on hedge funds. Here are a few quotes from a recent article. (Reuters) "Following nine years of steady growth, managed (hedge fund) assets fell to $618.6 billion from $622.3
The fall in assets comes in part because hedge funds which claim to make money whether markets rise or fall have not lived up to their promise of high returns amid deteriorating profits.
The decline in assets is striking considering the dire performance of equity markets and indicates the lower risk appetite of many investors not helped by recent hedge fund blow ups like Beacon Hill and Lipper"
Firstly let's look at the fall in assets. After nine years of steady growth the first quarter of this year was the first to experience a reversal. Should we head for the door because of It.? No. Any broker worth his salt would never recommend a client to abandon ship on a successful investment on one quarter's performance. .
Secondly to make a generalization that hedge funds, which claim to make money in rising or falling markets have not lived up to their promise, is wrong.
The hedge funds I recommend have made money and have lived up to their promise. And then by implication that the run from hedge funds is because they are high risk. No again. Some for sure are, but not all. Since its inception in January 1999 a fund I have happily recommend for low risk investors has an annualized return to date of 16.2% and an annualized volatility of just 4.1%. This is even lower risk than bonds. I am not trying to say I am cleverer than this journalist. Probably I'm not. He expresses very real concerns about the hedge fund industry and its lack of regulation. The point I'm making is that if I were a full time journalist I too would probably hunt down stories which show the fastest growing section of the financial industry in a negative light and not particularly go out of my way to hunt down the good companies that investors want to know about.
The difference between him and me as I've already said is that I will be standing by my recommendations. I'm sure that even he would admit there are some excellent companies in the industry.
My job is to find the good ones. His job I guess and hope he continues to do it is find the crooks.
But please a little lighter on the generalizations.
If there is any area of personal finance you'd like to explore please contact Jerry McMenamin at jerry@swissinvestcenter.net

Flying High

by Alain de Rocker
BA Faces Big Gulf War Payout
A French court has ordered British Airways to pay EUR1.67 million (USD$1.90 million) in compensation to seven people who were caught up in the Gulf War thirteen years ago when one of the UK carrier's planes was stranded in Kuwait.
The seven were taken hostage by invading Iraqi troops after the plane landed in Kuwait in August 1990.
BA say the aircraft was making a routine re-fueling stop, but former hostages maintained it was dropping off special forces troops, an accusation denied by the airline.
The airline, which was today considering its options, argued that Iraq's invasion of its neighbor was an act of war and the carrier could not be responsible for what happened. In ruling against BA, the French court said the invasion was highly predictable and that the airline had failed in its obligations. There were 400 people on board the Boeing 747 which touched down in Kuwait City while on a London to Kuala Lumpur flight. With the airport under attack, passengers were sent to a hotel where they were later held by Iraqi troops. Some were used as human shields and were not released for several months.

Airport Figures Signal Gradual Recovery
Figures from airports on both sides of the world indicate that air travel is staging a gradual recovery after suffering from the twin blows of the Iraq war and the SARS outbreak. UK operator BAA reported a 2.9 percent year-on-year rise in June traffic at its seven airports. In Hong Kong, the Airports Authority said it was
on track to make a full recovery, despite last month's traffic being over 57 percent down on the previous June.
Among the 12 million passengers handled by BAA airports there was a small increase of 0.9 percent at London Heathrow, the UK's busiest.
BAA said the continued expansion of low cost scheduled airlines and full service airlines offering lower fares enabled European scheduled routes to grow by 10.1 percent and domestic traffic to increase by 8.4 percent.
Long-haul traffic continued to recover from the Middle East war and SARS impacts. Downward pressure on North Atlantic traffic in recent months eased in June, when passenger numbers fell by a modest 1.6 percent.
Other long haul markets affected by the SARS travel restrictions were down 3.2 percent, but have started to show improvement since the World Health Organization removed its warnings.
At Hong Kong's Chek Lap Kok Airport, June's passenger traffic was up by 15 percent on May, signalling the air transport industry was slowly
recovering from the SARS blow. "The latest figures show that we are well on track to making a full recovery," said Chief Executive David Pang.
The first week of July confirmed the positive trend in Hong Kong with traffic reaching 70 percent of pre-SARS levels.

Investigators Probe Sudan Crash
Crash investigators have started their probe into the Sudan Airways disaster in which 116 people died early on July 8th. They will be looking for evidence from the 'black box' flight recorders recovered from the wreckage of the elderly Boeing 737. The plane was only minutes into a domestic flight from Port Sudan, in the north east of the African country, to the capital Khartoum, when the crew reported problems. The pilot was attempting to return to Port Sudan airport when the jet came down around three miles short of the runway and burst into flames.
A three-year-old boy, who lost a leg, was the only survivor among the 105 passengers and 11 crew members. The Boeing 737-200C was delivered to Sudan Airways in 1975.

Flexibility Helps Lufthansa In Difficult Times
Despite a host of problems facing the airline industry in the first half of 2003, Lufthansa said this July 10th its flexibility had allowed it to lift passenger numbers during a difficult six months. The continuing economic downturn, the impact of the SARS virus and the Iraq war weakened demand in air traffic in the first half. From January to June this year, 21.6 million passengers flew with the group's airlines, up 2.6 percent. While available capacity rose by 3.8 percent, sales increased by 1.2 percent.
The generally difficult operating environment made it impossible to sell all the increased capacity. Consequently, passenger load factor was down by 1.9 percentage points to 71.9 percent. A weak economy also continued to affect the company's freight business.
Lufthansa Cargo carried 4.4 percent less freight and mail in the first half, pushing cargo load factor down by 2.4 percentage points to 64.8 percent.
However, the airline said that the worst crisis yet in the air traffic industry had now bottomed out. At the end of June, Lufthansa promptly raised capacities on routes to North America and Asia to cope with a pick-up in demand. Flexible capacity management has also proved to be a special strength of the Lufthansa Group, the company said in a statement.

Finnair Gradually Restoring Asian Services
Finland's national carrier, Finnair, says it is gradually adding capacity to its Asian routes and will launch a new service to Shanghai, China as it emerges from the shadow of the SARS outbreak. Reporting June traffic figures, the Helsinki-based carrier said that the SARS months are now a thing of the past for air traffic. The epidemic caused a dramatic plunge in demand in April, May and June, especially in Asian traffic, but it reflected also on demand for European routes. Bookings show signs of a slow recovery on the airline's Asian services for the end of summer and beginning of autumn.
Finnair's Beijing route, which was cut to one weekly flight, will see capacity double by the end of this month. In August, frequencies will increase to three, and then to four per week in September. The airline's previously announced new route to Shanghai will also be launched in September. Last month, Finnair carried a total of 567,700 passengers which is 11.6 percent down on June the previous year. The June figures reflect a gradually improving demand as SARS fears decrease, but the numbers were also affected by an aviation workers' two-day strike which stopped all domestic and some European flights, the
airline said.

FlyBe Launching New Low Fares Base
UK carrier FlyBe is to launch a new West of England low fares base at Exeter International Airport in March next year. The country's third largest low fare airline will offer daily flights to six destinations, three in Spain and three in the UK. FlyBe says that domestic one-way fares will start at GBP£19 (USD$31) and on the Mediterranean routes at GBP£49. Re-launched in July 2002 from British European to FlyBe, the Exeter-based airline is now the largest operator at both Southampton and Birmingham Airports and says it is looking to mirror similar growth in the West Country. "We aim to carry 150,000 to 200,000 passengers on these new routes in the first year," the company's Managing Director Jim French said today, adding that there was a strong business case for the development of Exeter International. The launch will create up to 100 more jobs at the airline among cabin crew, ground and administration support workers, taking the airline's total number of Exeter-based staff to more than 800. The new routes are to Alicante, Malaga and Murcia in Spain which will be operated by BAe 146 aircraft. Domestic routes to Belfast City, Edinburgh and Glasgow will be flown by Bombardier Q400 planes.

Thai Airways Set For Privatization
The privatization of state-owned Thai Airways, which has been on hold for the past two years, is to go ahead in November. The Thai government intends to reduce its 93 percent holding in its flag carrier to 70 percent and will look to raise THB15 billion (USD$359 million) from the offer of 300 million new shares. Proceeds from the sale will help finance a new international airport in Bangkok, the country's capital. The money will also buy new planes for the Thai Airways fleet.
Global problems in the airline industry forced the government to delay its privatization plans at the end of 2001. However, the airline has managed to stay profitable and says it is on course to improve on last year's financial performance despite the recent SARS outbreak. Thai Airways made profits of THB10.18 billion in its last fiscal year.

Heathrow Night Flight Appeal Upheld
A threat to end night flights at the UK's busiest airport, London Heathrow, was averted early July when the government won its appeal against a European court decision to ban overnight take-offs and landings.
The UK's Department of Transport had argued that the economic impact on airlines would be disastrous if the European Court of Human Rights ruling was upheld.
The Court had backed the claims of a group of eight people living near London's major airport that night flights violated their human rights by disturbing their sleep. Had that ruling been put into practise, take-offs and landings could have been banned between 11pm and 6am although the court can only make recommendations and cannot enforce its decisions.
Campaigners had argued successfully that the UK's relaxation of restrictions on night flights ten years ago breached human rights. Under European conventions they are guaranteed privacy and enjoyment in their homes. After early July's appeal reversed the original ruling the campaigners vowed to continue their fight.

SARS Milestone As Taiwan Cleared
Taiwan became on July 5th the last territory to be removed from the World Health Organization's SARS danger list. The WHO said that the move marked a milestone in the fight against the respiratory disease but warned that, although the virus has been contained, the global battle continues. WHO Director-General Gro Harlem Brundtland said: "We do not mark the end of SARS today, but we observe a milestone. Based on country surveillance reports, the human chains of SARS virus transmission appear to have been broken everywhere in the world." Taiwan was given the all-clear after completing the WHO's mandatory 20-day period without new infections. The illness, for which there is no immediate cure, first appeared last year in the Southern China province of Guangdong. It spread rapidly throughout the Asian region and to Toronto in eastern Canada. Cases were also reported in South Africa. In total, there were 812 deaths worldwide from the virus and over 8000 people suffered from the infection. Earlier, the WHO cautioned against complacency and said it was possible the disease could re-appear.

A look at current events through the eyes of Transformational Thinking.
By Bill Gould

I want someone with whom I am aligned in purpose and whose purposes are in alignment with my own. I want that person to believe in what they are doing with passion and I want to share that passion. Equally, I want them to recognize my passions and know ho to create the opportunities for me to apply what I know, teach and learn.
Here's what it comes down to, folks. We have to design our own models and mentors because there just ain't that many of them out there in the real world. We have to ask ourselves, "Why?" Who are our heroes today? Sports figures? Okay. I can see that. Based on accomplishment, something easy for us to measure and something to which most of us aspire at some time or another. Stats are easy for most people to digest and certainly fit in with a linear thinking system. I tend to look at things a little differently. I want the ideal leader, not just a reasonable facsimile thereof. Someone I can trust twenty four hours a day and not situationally. Call me demanding.
There is a catch to all this thinking, by the way. There is that natural law we mentioned a few articles back that says that the more aware one becomes, the more responsible one becomes for one's actions in direct proportion. Uh! Oh! You mean . . .? Yeah. Perhaps I should have warned you before you got this far. It may be too late for you to turn back now. Sorry about that. As we sit here opining the perfect leader, creating an image (model) in our mind, we are also creating a bar for us to reach. As soon as the mind can conceive of it, it becomes possible. The only trick is finding the connections between here and there. They are always there. You just have to look for them and that is another attribute I want in my ideal leader's bag of tricks.
I once told Willis when I was thanking him for perhaps the one-millionth time for being such a good sponsor and mentor that the perfect guide was someone who let you stumble but who never let you fall. He grinned his usual sheepish white beard-covered knowing smile with that glint in his eye that said it all. He never was one much for words. That's something else I want in a leader. I believe they refer to it in the textbooks as empowerment but I have seen little evidence of it in the real world. Perhaps that is because they don't teach the difference between power and control. The leader knows the difference. Power is not something that is inherited, comes with a promotion or a title. It is all about experience. Power can only be earned and is given by people freely, never by directive from above or outside. That is control and whereas control may be great for systems, humans don't tend to operate that way, as we pointed out above. Know the difference and never lose sight of it. That's one of the keys to being an effective leader.
To borrow upon another AA experience, there is the Serenity Prayer: "God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things that I can and the wisdom to know the difference." That is a great attribute for a leader. I want my ideal leader to have that one, too.
Based on another human being, real or contrived, living or passed on, the simple truth is that our models and mentors exist only in our minds. We create our own. As our awarness increases, do our actions reflect this change? Hmm. There's the real question, folks. It always comes home, doesn't it? responsibility. We are back to the individual, aren't we? What can I do with what I have learned through this exercise to improve my own reality? That's where the theory becomes reality and that is the only place it really matters.
We are all leaders in one area of our life or another. None of us are leaders in all. Certain leadership skills are transferable from one area to another, others inherent within the individual and others that can be taught and learned easily. That's is what Tansformational Thinking provides, the vehicle and the skills to attain the models and mentors we create for ourselves. Mostly, I apply what I know to my own life and it works for me. By sharing it with others, I have seen it help them, too. We apply it within our organization and it works for us. There is always room for improvement and none of us blind to our own lack of experience. That's when you start looking for the winners and emulating them, commonly referred to as faking it until making it.
See you next month. Keep on thinking!

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